Stockton AG Report: May / June 2025
AG OUTLOOK: WHAT FARMERS AND RANCHERS CAN EXPECT FOR THE REST OF 2025
In 2025, the Trump administration began imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, Europe and China. These countries responded with their own tariffs on U.S. goods. The top five countries importing U.S. ag products are Mexico, Canada, China, the European Union and Japan, so tariffs have a significant impact on the ag community.
As of May 12, the U.S. and China agreed to lower tariff rates for 90 days, with U.S. tariffs on China decreasing to 30% from 145%, and China reducing tariffs on the U.S. to 10% from 125%. But, if this trade war continues, what can local farmers and ranchers expect for the rest of this year?
Dairy: China is the largest buyer of U.S. dry whey and lactose products. If high tariffs continue, will China look elsewhere to fill their demand? In the past, when China imposed a 25% tariff on U.S. products, U.S. exports of dry permeate to China decreased by 55% and U.S. prices for these products fell by more than 35%.
Cattle: Overall, thus far in 2025, cattle producers have faired best, but due to drought, high feed costs and other factors, the cattle inventory has hit a 60-year-low. This, combined with the trade war and an increased demand in the market, has driven up cattle prices 183% between 2022 and 2025.
Soybeans: If history repeats itself, in 2018, when we were at a trade war with China, U.S. soy bean exports dropped to a nine-year low, falling 74% from prior year export quantities, and the global soybean market materially shifted as a result.
Corn: U.S. farmers are predicted to grow corn over other crops this year, so supply is expected to be strong. Although there is hope that demand for corn will withstand the tariffs, we’re still likely to see corn exports and prices decline if tariffs stay high.
Exports of U.S. ag products are only one piece of the puzzle (approximately 20% of U.S. farm income comes from exports). The bigger concern is rising costs on vital supplies like fertilizer and farm tools, which could drive up input costs for farmers and ranchers, many of whom are already breaking even as is.
How can farmers & ranchers mitigate risk?
The reality is that the trade war dynamics and tariff polices are changing almost daily, so it is anyone’s guess what will happen for the rest of 2025. To help manage the risk exposure to your farm and ranch, reach out to the Stockton Seed House. For example, one way farmers and ranchers can soften the impact of rising input costs is by stocking up on vital supplies at current prices. At the Stockton Seed House, we try to stay on top of current trends and market news to be able to give customers an advantage in preordering and planning ahead.
Will the federal government provide financial relief to farmers as a result of the trade war?
In his first term, the Trump administration compensated farmers for income losses due to retaliatory foreign tariffs on U.S. ag products. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said that her team is working on a structure and plan for another relief program for this round of the trade war. However, as of now, it is unclear where the funding would come from. The last Market Facilitation Program was funded through the Commodity Credit Corporation, but sources say that fund has gone dry.
It is also unlikely that Congress can fund this given the current lack of movement on other funding bills. Additionally, in December 2024, Congress passed the American Relief Act of 2025, which provided $31 billion in natural and economic disaster aid to farmers and ranchers, extended the 2018 farm bill for a second time, and allocated an additional $2.5 billion in aid through the USDA. Given this, it is unlikely Congress will want to allot any additional substantial funding to the ag sector in 2025.
How to maximize quality forage production
This year, spring came around without much hesitation, bringing with it some welcome moisture. However, drought conditions the last couple years left some considerable scars on the land. The Stockton Seed House has been busy moving seed out the door for both lawns and pastures and a common question we’ve been seeing is how to maximize forage production and quality on years where little rainfall and high temperatures wipe out any grass available.
This is where summer annuals have a major advantage. One of our favorite and most popular is Cow-Pro Honeycomb Sorghum Sudangrass.
Honeycomb Hybrid Sorgo Sudangrass is a three-way cross: Hybrid Sorg-Sorghum X Sudangrass. The sorgo cross reduces the stem size and brings about its sweet juiciness. Honeycomb Sorghum Sudangrass has uniform growth with very broad, dark green leaves. It’s excellent root system provides standability and drought tolerance. Exceptional seedling vigor and fast regrowth provide multiple cuttings or continuous summer pasture. With adequate rainfall, producers can expect to cut every 30 days until frost kill.
Stop by the Stockton Seed House for a personalized recommendation (we can order just about any type of seed to meet your needs!).
Bring your fescue to Stockton Seed House this summer!
Stockton Seed House is proud to partner with our local farmers this fescue season. We will once again be a buyer of K31 Tall Fescue. Pricing is yet to be determined and posted. To be in the know, reach out to be added to the Stockton Seed House fescue cutters group. We look forward to serving you! Call us at (417) 880-6412 with any questions.